The images and stories coming out of Gaza these past two weeks have been awful. There’s no maneuvering around the situation that has emerged. Military victory has been all but achieved. There are no more significant military targets other than the hostages, and approaching them at this point would spell their doom. But what is becoming clear is that even with the surge of aid that went into Gaza before the spring ceasefire broke down, which the UN said was at least six months worth of provisions, in some parts of Gaza there was not enough food over the last couple of weeks to sustain civilians. And Hamas, seeing this, walked away from a ceasefire Israel had already accepted.
How has this happened, and how can it be dealt with? What would be a counterproductive response?
I’ll start with a few sobering and a few encouraging thoughts, as well as a few harsh truths.
First, the ghoulish spectre of Yahya Sinwar is probably laughing in whatever fiery hell he inhabits. This is the outcome he wanted. Using the lives, the bodies of his own people, he sought to, and succeeded in putting Israel in a position where its need to fight on the battlefield he prepared would have the effect of jeopardizing Israel externally as well as internally. And for the first time in the entire conflict aside from during hostage exchanges, Israel has instituted humanitarian pauses lasting for 10 hours a day. What did it cost Hamas? Only more dead or more suffering, a cost they are counting on. Not a single hostage, not a single concession. This is something Israelis need to reckon with, and assure themselves that they can find leadership which will not let this happen again.
Second, the shortsighted and self-serving moralization guiding France’s Macron, the UK’s Starmer, and Canada’s Carney to advise that they will recognize a Palestinian state in September (certainly if there is no ceasefire before then) irresponsibly disincentivises Hamas from any deal before that deadline. Why would they? They get a victory in a month if they just hold out for more death and destruction. These leaders’ pandering to the most radical, violent, and disruptive constituencies in their own countries will backfire, and not a single Gazan will be helped by their declarations.
Third, Israel and the US have provided about 100 million meals to Gazans in the last two months, primarily in the south and west. In the last week, they have begun to flood the rest of Gaza with additional food and medical aid, as well as coordinating airdrops of food from other countries. Israel had provided much opportunity - with the exception of a period from March to May - for the UN to bring food in - 4500 truckloads between May and July. But the UN did not distribute much of it, letting tens of thousands of pounds rot in the sun. Why? The UN at the same time says It must be the distributor and not the Israeli backed GHF, that Israel is responsible for securing distribution, but Israel cannot be the party securing the trucks. Its own words!! In any case, the worst can be avoided if and as Israel sustains this surge of aid. The enraging hypocrisy of a world that expects Israel to do something it has never expected from any other belligerent in any other war against any foe even half as murderous as Hamas does not absolve Israel from setting and meeting its own standards of action, even in a war against a foe as intractable and evil as Hamas.
Fourth, experts like West Point Professor John Spencer point out and provide evidence that Israel is already doing more to safeguard Gazan lives than in any other conflict he can find, and military history is his field of study. Some of the only near comparables he has considered have been the Japanese in 1944 and 1945, in the battle of Manila and the planned invasion of Japan (Operation Olympic). It was determined that there would be 1,000,000 Americans killed and wounded if the Japanese mainland had to be fought through as Israel has had to do in Gaza, without even contemplating the number of Japanese who would be killed. America’s answer to this conundrum was to drop two atomic bombs on Japan to end the war, killing over 150,000 in Nagasaki and Hiroshima. And yet it was probably the right decision. Israel has often (though not always) dropped warning pamphlets, makes phone calls and does roof taps to move civilians. Which country is in the docket of world opinion?
I’ll conclude by sharing a perspective I have developed in my own 40 years of studying military history. Few, if any wars are made up of only one battle. They involve campaigns, advances, retreats, sieges, beachheads, all supported by industry, logistics, transportation, intelligence and communications. Wars always have mistakes, miscalculations, and terrible, costly choices.
During WW2, Winston Churchill ordered that the city of Coventry not be warned or defended from an impending Luftwaffe bombing during the Battle of Britain in November 1940. The British had cracked the Enigma encryption used by the Nazis, and found out that Coventry was a target, but it was clear to Churchill and his General Staff that using that information would let the Nazis know their code was cracked, jeopardizing one of the most important tools the allies had during the entire war. As a result 4300 homes were destroyed, two thirds of the buildings in Coventry were damaged, more than 500 British civilians were killed and hundreds more wounded. And yet it was the terrible choice that had to be made.
Coventry was a terrible choice, as was the American choice in Japan. Israel is faced with calculations and choices to make, as well as unexpected outcomes of badly informed decisions. It needs to meet its own moral standards, and reckon with itself if it is in danger of not reaching them.
Here’s the thing: from my perspective, the global war being fought now is a war against the Jewish people and their sovereign identity in their ancestral homeland. This war will have battles won and battles lost. It will have missed opportunities, triumphs, tragedies, and terrible choices. One is not obliged to agree with every choice or cheer every questionable decision. One does not even have to like the leadership prosecuting the part of the war in Israel. But one does need to recognize that the existence and future of the Jewish people and Jewish sovereignty are at stake. One does need to recognize that our adversaries are relentless, whether they are murderous Nukhba terrorists or masked vandals and harassers in our streets. The war we are engulfed in is thrust upon us, and fighting it writ large is a just cause. You can be as critical of individual policy or decisions as our people always are, as the Israeli press and much of Israeli society are. You can expect leadership to find better answers to challenges than it has displayed at times. But if you expect near perfection from Israel in fighting this war when it is not expected from anyone else anywhere else, I’d suggest that it might be useful to you to reconsider. I stand with Israel and the Jewish people, with all of our flaws, just as I would with a sibling. I turn towards them. I advise, embrace and comfort. Because I don’t ever turn away from family.